Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China
Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Mehrotra, Aaron (22.11.2008)
Numero
22/2008Julkaisija
Bank of Finland
2008
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408071922Tiivistelmä
We use business survey data collected by the People's Bank of China for inflation forecast-ing. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the uni-variate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the esti-mated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices. Keywords: inflation forecasting; business surveys; China. JEL classification: C53; E31.
Julkaisuhuomautus
Published in Economic change and restructuring, vol. 42, no. 4 (2009), pp. 263-271