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Cyber deterrence is overrated: analysis of the deterrent potential of the new cyber doctrine and lessons for Germany's "active cyper defence"
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Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik -SWP- Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Abstract Proponents of active, offensive cyber operations argue that they could have a deterrent effect on potential cyber attackers. The latter would think twice about attacking if a digital counter-attack might be the consequence. The idea that offensive cyber capabilities should have a deterrent effect w... view more
Proponents of active, offensive cyber operations argue that they could have a deterrent effect on potential cyber attackers. The latter would think twice about attacking if a digital counter-attack might be the consequence. The idea that offensive cyber capabilities should have a deterrent effect was one reason why the new US cyber doctrine was adopted in 2018. The same assumption is implicit in the debate about cyber counterattacks ("hack backs") in Germany. Yet these assessments are based on a superficial understanding of deterrence. Cyber deterrence by the threat of retaliation works differently than that of nuclear deterrence. Problems of attribution, displays of power, controllability and the credibility of digital capabilities increase the risk of deterrence failure. Thus, the German cyber security policy would be well advised to increase its "deterrence by denial", cyber security and the resilience of its systems. (Autorenreferat)... view less
Keywords
Federal Republic of Germany; defense policy; security policy; United States of America; virtual reality; infrastructure; measure; comparison; Internet
Classification
Peace and Conflict Research, International Conflicts, Security Policy
Free Keywords
Kritische Infrastrukturen; Verwundbarkeit von Zielen; Gegenmaßnahme; Abwehr eines Angriffs
Document language
English
Publication Year
2019
City
Berlin
Page/Pages
8 p.
Series
SWP Comment, 34/2019
DOI
https://doi.org/10.18449/2019C34
ISSN
1861-1761
Status
Published Version; reviewed
Licence
Deposit Licence - No Redistribution, No Modifications