How Turnout Depends on the Number of Parties : A Logical Model

Taagepera, Rein; Selb, Peter; Grofman, Bernard

How Turnout Depends on the Number of Parties : A Logical Model

Dateien

Taagepera_266049.pdfGröße: 338.61 KBDownloads: 559

Datum

2013

Autor:innen

Taagepera, Rein

Selb, Peter

Grofman, Bernard

Open Access-Veröffentlichung

Open Access Green

Sammlungen

Politik- und Verwaltungswissenschaft

Publikationstyp

Zeitschriftenartikel

Publikationsstatus

Published

Erschienen in

Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. 2013, 24(4), pp. 393-413. ISSN 1745-7289. eISSN 1745-7297. Available under: doi: 10.1080/17457289.2013.858345

Zusammenfassung

We illustrate the power of “logical models” (Taagepera, 2007) by offering a three-parameter model of the relationship between the effective number of parties and electoral turnout that makes use of the constraints on what parameter values are internally coherent given boundary conditions to specify functional form, and seeks not optimal curve fitting but rather a direct model testing. In our model, one parameter reflects an effect that generally acts to increase turnout as the effective number of parties increases, another an effect that generally acts to decrease turnout as the effective number of parties increases, while a third parameter allows for baseline variation in turnout across countries (or within countries across elections). We fit this model to district-level data from 237 elections held in 17 countries, representing a wide range of electoral system types generating multi-party contests, with over 20,000 district-election observations. The basic intuition, that turnout rises to a peak as the effective number of parties increases and then falls slowly, fits our data pretty well.

Fachgebiet (DDC)

320 Politik

Zitieren

ISO 690

TAAGEPERA, Rein, Peter SELB, Bernard GROFMAN, 2013. How Turnout Depends on the Number of Parties : A Logical Model. In: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. 2013, 24(4), pp. 393-413. ISSN 1745-7289. eISSN 1745-7297. Available under: doi: 10.1080/17457289.2013.858345

BibTex

@article{Taagepera2013Turno-26604,
  year={2013},
  doi={10.1080/17457289.2013.858345},
  title={How Turnout Depends on the Number of Parties : A Logical Model},
  number={4},
  volume={24},
  issn={1745-7289},
  journal={Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties},
  pages={393--413},
  author={Taagepera, Rein and Selb, Peter and Grofman, Bernard}
}

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Universitätsbibliographie

Ja