A global risk assessment model for civil wars

Rost, Nicolas; Schneider, Gerald; Kleibl, Johannes

A global risk assessment model for civil wars

Dateien

socialscienceresearch_onlineversion_July2009.pdfGröße: 4.25 MBDownloads: 1548

Datum

2009

Autor:innen

Rost, Nicolas

Schneider, Gerald

Kleibl, Johannes

Open Access-Veröffentlichung

Open Access Green

Sammlungen

Politik- und Verwaltungswissenschaft

Publikationstyp

Zeitschriftenartikel

Publikationsstatus

Published

Erschienen in

Social Science Research. 2009, 38(4), pp. 921-933. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2009.06.007

Zusammenfassung

In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity an important harbinger of wars to come as an aspect of state behavior. Our aim is not to explore the causal factors of civil war onset, but to build a model that includes indicators that correlate with civil war outbreak and may be used to predict it. Based on two versions of the model logit and neural network out-of-sample risk assessments for three different time periods are generated and compared to the historical record of civil war outbreak during those years. In addition, the model s ability to produce in-sample risk assessments over a 5-year period is tested. Finally, we compute truly predictive civil war risk assessments for all countries for which data are available, for the years 2008 2012. The analyses show that with a relatively simple model and based on publicly available data sources, meaningful civil war risk assessments can be computed. The quality of the predictions exceeds that of prominent studies, in which the risk of interstate war is assessed.

Fachgebiet (DDC)

320 Politik

Schlagwörter

Frühwarnung, Bürgerkrieg, Risikoeinschätzung, Early warning, Prediction, Civil war, Neural networks, Logit regression, Risk assessment

Zitieren

ISO 690

ROST, Nicolas, Gerald SCHNEIDER, Johannes KLEIBL, 2009. A global risk assessment model for civil wars. In: Social Science Research. 2009, 38(4), pp. 921-933. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2009.06.007

BibTex

@article{Rost2009globa-4095,
  year={2009},
  doi={10.1016/j.ssresearch.2009.06.007},
  title={A global risk assessment model for civil wars},
  number={4},
  volume={38},
  journal={Social Science Research},
  pages={921--933},
  author={Rost, Nicolas and Schneider, Gerald and Kleibl, Johannes}
}

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Universitätsbibliographie

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