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Disentangling Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks / Annika Camehl, Malte Rieth
VerfasserCamehl, Annika ; Rieth, Malte
ErschienenHalle (Saale), Germany : Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) - Member of the Leibniz Association, 09. März 2021
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (III, 35, 16 Seiten, 3,29 MB) : Diagramme
SpracheEnglisch
SerieIWH-Diskussionspapiere ; 2021, no. 2 (March 2021)
SchlagwörterBayesian analysis / coronavirus / epidemics / general equilibrium / non-pharmaceutical interventions / panel data / structural vector autoregressions
URNurn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-134086 
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Disentangling Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks [3.29 mb]
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We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19 economic mobility and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately cases after one week and deaths after three weeks. Non-pharmaceutical interventions explain half of the variation in mobility cases and deaths worldwide. These flattened the pandemic curve while deepening the global mobility recession. The policy tradeoff is 1 p.p. less mobility per day for 9% fewer deaths after two months.