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Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? : German evidence / Katja Heinisch, Rolf Scheufele
VerfasserHeinisch, Katja ; Scheufele, Rolf
ErschienenHalle (Saale), Germany : Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), 08. Februar 2017
Umfang1 Online-Ressource (III, 30 Seiten, 1,07 MB) : Diagramme
SpracheEnglisch
SerieIWH-Diskussionspapiere ; 2017, no. 5
URNurn:nbn:de:gbv:3:2-67732 
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Should forecasters use real-time data to evaluate leading indicator models for GDP prediction? [1.07 mb]
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In this paper we investigate whether differences exist among forecasts using real-time or latest-available data to predict gross domestic product (GDP). We employ mixed-frequency models and real-time data to reassess the role of survey data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Although we find evidence that forecast characteristics based on real-time and final data releases differ we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However when obtaining the optimal combination of soft and hard data the use of final release data may understate the role of survey information.