Universität zu Köln

Krabbe, Laura-Maria, Eminaga, Okyaz, Shariat, Shahrokh F., Hutchinson, Ryan C., Lotan, Yair, Sagalowsky, Arthur I., Raman, Jay D., Wood, Christopher G., Weizer, Alon Z., Roscigno, Marco ORCID: 0000-0002-5241-6767, Montorsi, Francesco, Bolenz, Christian, Novara, Giacomo ORCID: 0000-0003-4693-5058, Kikuchi, Eiji ORCID: 0000-0002-1624-6676, Fajkovic, Harun, Rapoport, Leonid M., Glybochko, Peter V., Zigeuner, Richard, Remzi, Mesut, Bensalah, Karim, Kassouf, Wassim and Margulis, Vitaly (2017). Postoperative Nomogram for Relapse-Free Survival in Patients with High Grade Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma. J. Urol., 197 (3). S. 580 - 589. NEW YORK: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. ISSN 1527-3792

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Abstract

Purpose: We developed a prognostic nomogram for patients with high grade urothelial carcinoma of the upper urinary tract after extirpative surgery. Materials and Methods: Clinical data were available for 2,926 patients diagnosed with high grade urothelial carcinoma of the upper urinary tract who underwent extirpative surgery. Cox proportional hazard regression models identified independent prognosticators of relapse in the development cohort (838). A backward step-down selection process was applied to achieve the most informative nomogram with the least number of variables. The L2-regularized logistic regression was applied to generate the novel nomogram. Harrell's concordance indices were calculated to estimate the discriminative accuracy of the model. Internal validation processes were performed using bootstrapping, random sampling, tenfold cross-validation, LOOCV, Brier score, information score and F1 score. External validation was performed on an external cohort (2,088). Decision tree analysis was used to develop a risk classification model. Kaplan-Meier curves were applied to estimate the relapse rate for each category. Results: Overall 35.3% and 30.7% of patients experienced relapse in the development and external validation cohort. The final nomogram included age, pT stage, pN stage and architecture. It achieved a discriminative accuracy of 0.71 and 0.76, and the AUC was 0.78 and 0.77 in the development and external validation cohort, respectively. Rigorous testing showed constant results. The 5-year relapse-free survival rates were 88.6%, 68.1%, 40.2% and 12.5% for the patients with low risk, intermediate risk, high risk and very high risk disease, respectively. Conclusions: The current nomogram, consisting of only 4 variables, shows high prognostic accuracy and risk stratification for patients with high grade urothelial carcinoma of the upper urinary tract following extirpative surgery, thereby adding meaningful information for clinical decision making.

Item Type:	Journal Article
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID ORCID Put Code Krabbe, Laura-Maria UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Eminaga, Okyaz UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Shariat, Shahrokh F. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Hutchinson, Ryan C. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Lotan, Yair UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Sagalowsky, Arthur I. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Raman, Jay D. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Wood, Christopher G. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Weizer, Alon Z. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Roscigno, Marco UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-5241-6767 UNSPECIFIED Montorsi, Francesco UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Bolenz, Christian UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Novara, Giacomo UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0003-4693-5058 UNSPECIFIED Kikuchi, Eiji UNSPECIFIED orcid.org/0000-0002-1624-6676 UNSPECIFIED Fajkovic, Harun UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Rapoport, Leonid M. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Glybochko, Peter V. UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Zigeuner, Richard UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Remzi, Mesut UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Bensalah, Karim UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Kassouf, Wassim UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED Margulis, Vitaly UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED UNSPECIFIED
URN:	urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-239210
DOI:	10.1016/j.juro.2016.09.078
Journal or Publication Title:	J. Urol.
Volume:	197
Number:	3
Page Range:	S. 580 - 589
Date:	2017
Publisher:	ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Place of Publication:	NEW YORK
ISSN:	1527-3792
Language:	English
Faculty:	Unspecified
Divisions:	Unspecified
Subjects:	no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Keywords Language CANCER-SPECIFIC SURVIVAL; RADICAL NEPHROURETERECTOMY; OUTCOMES; CLASSIFICATION; NEOPLASMS Multiple languages Urology & Nephrology Multiple languages
Refereed:	Yes
URI:	http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/23921