Boansi, David: Extreme weather events in Sudan Savanna Region of West Africa : agricultural impacts and adaptation. - Bonn, 2019. - Dissertation, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn.
Online-Ausgabe in bonndoc: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:5n-56472
@phdthesis{handle:20.500.11811/8017,
urn: https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hbz:5n-56472,
author = {{David Boansi}},
title = {Extreme weather events in Sudan Savanna Region of West Africa : agricultural impacts and adaptation},
school = {Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn},
year = 2019,
month = nov,

note = {Climate and weather extremes generally lead to crop yield, income and consumption losses. Despite their occurrence at the farm level, very little has so far been done to empirically assess weather risks and their effects on welfare at the farm household level, especially, in the West African Sudan Savanna. This thesis analyzes intra-seasonal risk of weather extremes, farmers' adaptation, and impacts of climate shocks on farm households' welfare in the Sudan Savanna of West Africa. The study is based on data from primary and secondary sources and is organized into three main chapters.
Using descriptive techniques, Markov chain model and climatic indices for monitoring weather extremes, it is found that the major climatic threats to crop and livestock production in the regions are rainfall and temperature related. In responding to intra-seasonal climatic threats, some of the farmers practice early planting to take advantage of the first rains, while majority of the farmers either plant late to avoid early-season dry spells or spread their planting to minimize production losses. It is found that for the early planters, the chances for seedlings to be exposed to dry spells of 10 days is estimated at 26.9% to 34.6% in the next 30 days from April 1, while for late planters there is a 36.5% to 48.0% probability for crops to be exposed to dry spells of 21days in the next 30 days from October 28. For the spreaders, there is a high probability for seedlings to be exposed to dry and hot spells and intense precipitation between May and October.
Employing descriptive techniques, Poisson regression and multivariate probit model for analyzing farmers' perception of and adaptation to weather extremes, it is found that farmers' perception of changes in the local climate are in conformity with climatic trends. In adapting to recent changes in the local climate, farmers in the regions implemented a total of 12 adaptation strategies. Although farmers are found to be more likely to adopt a mix of adaptive strategies, they are 7 times more likely to resort to the joint adoption of 6 low-cost measures than adopting 5 capital-intensive measures. This suggests that financial capabilities play major role in farmers adaptation decisions. Institutional and infrastructural measures like distance to markets, access to extension services and credit are found to be the most important determinants of farmers adaptation choices.
Econometric and mathematical programming models are used in the final chapter to simulate the impact of climate shocks on farmers' welfare in the Northern Savanna of Ghana. Farmers were grouped into homogenous units. Three groups of farmers were identified. These are, two poor farmers groups who operate under low input conditions on medium-scale farms (Clusters 1 and 2), and less poor farmers who operate under high input conditions on small-scale farms. It is found that, compared to the current rainfall distribution, a drier future could result in total income loss of about 3.70% (in Cluster 3) to 23.75% (Cluster 1). Under this scenario, the quantity of food available for consumption is predicted to decrease across all the three clusters, although a greater decrease is expected in Cluster 1. Besides the predicted changes in income and consumption, a drier future could result in 13.6%, 5.69% and 3.33% decreases in the shadow price of rainfed lands in Clusters 1, 2 and 3 respectively. It is found that irrigation expansion in the study area could lead to income gains of about 3.98% to 35.32% under the current rainfall distribution, while investment in research and development efforts could lead to income gains of about 10.31% to 33.48%. The poor farmers of Clusters 1 and 2 are expected to benefit the most from these two interventions.
In conclusion, the study shows that policy efforts made to improve farmers access to markets, credit, extension services, and timely and accurate weather forecasts could enhance farmers' adaptation to climate shocks, while the implementation of appropriate adaptation strategies could help to curb the adverse impacts of climate and weather shocks.},

url = {https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11811/8017}
}

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