On the conditional effects of IMF loan program participation on output growth
- Panel Sample Selection ModelsThe empirical evidence currently available in the literature regarding the effects of a country's IMF program participation on its output growth is rather inconclusive. In this paper we propose and estimate a panel data sample selection model featuring state dependence. As in this model the output growth effects of program participation can be conditional on the realization of a state variable (conditional pooling), our framework may reconcile previous empirical evidence based on models without state-dependent effects. We find that the effects of IMF program participation on output growth vary systematically with an index reflecting a country's institutional record, and that output growth effects of program participation are significantly positive only if the program participation is coupled with sufficient improvement of the institutional record.
| Author: | Michael Binder, Marcel Bluhm |
|---|---|
| URN: | urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-343188 |
| URL: | http://www.imfs-frankfurt.de/fileadmin/user_upload/IMFS_WP/WP_78.pdf |
| Parent Title (English): | Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability ; 78 |
| Series (Serial Number): | Working paper series / Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (78) |
| Publisher: | Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Univ., Inst. for Monetary and Financial Stability |
| Place of publication: | Frankfurt am Main |
| Document Type: | Working Paper |
| Language: | English |
| Year of Completion: | 2014 |
| Year of first Publication: | 2014 |
| Publishing Institution: | Universitätsbibliothek Johann Christian Senckenberg |
| Release Date: | 2014/07/02 |
| Tag: | Conditional Pooling; IMF Program Participation; Output Growth; Panel Sample Selection Models |
| Page Number: | 44 |
| HeBIS-PPN: | 344383016 |
| Institutes: | Wirtschaftswissenschaften / Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| Wissenschaftliche Zentren und koordinierte Programme / Center for Financial Studies (CFS) | |
| Dewey Decimal Classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft |
| JEL-Classification: | C Mathematical and Quantitative Methods / C3 Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models / C33 Models with Panel Data |
| Sammlungen: | Universitätspublikationen |
| Licence (German): |  Deutsches Urheberrecht |
