Is the USA's Current Account Sustainable?
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The extraordinary height of the U.S. current account deficits in the 90s
gave rise to concern, a variety of papers and political recommendations
revealing the very contrary opinions of economists on the subject.
From this alarming evolution, the question of sustainability of such a large
indebtedness arises.
Are the U.S. already bankrupt?
If not, what is the ultimate level of its foreign debt?
As a starting point, the variety of meanings of the term sustainability'<br />are consolidated to a consistent definition.<br />Introducing terminology and reviewing the basic principles of balance<br />of payments accounting, the evolution of the U.S. balance of payments<br />and international debt is presented in numbers. The models of the central parts of the text<br />emphasise the importance of understanding the current account as an<br />intertemporal phenomenon.<br />The real' perspective is presented in the baseline representative agent
and overlapping generations macro-models whereas the monetary perspective
is exposed in a portfolio balance approach.
These models are confronted with IMF statistics and checked for
plausibility of their implications.
As the very crucial point for the U.S. case, the
significance of the dollar standard of international financial markets
is discussed
thereafter.
Finally, a detailed breakdown of the income account reveals surprising
insights on the quality of U.S. agents' investment decisions.
The overall result is striking: Although the debt-to-GDP ratio is
approaching its 5 per cent red-mark, there are no effects observable
in fundamental variables indicating bankruptcy or un-sustainability of
the U.S. international debt.
On the contrary - for monetary reasons, the U.S. will be able to run
a significant higher level of external debt and models in conjunction
with data suggest that the U.S. is approaching a long-run
debt-to-GDP steady state. In these results, the author acknowledges the
outsider position of economists.
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BUBLA, Florian, 2003. Is the USA's Current Account Sustainable? [Master thesis]BibTex
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year={2003},
title={Is the USA's Current Account Sustainable?},
author={Bubla, Florian}
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<dcterms:abstract xml:lang="eng">The extraordinary height of the U.S. current account deficits in the 90s<br />gave rise to concern, a variety of papers and political recommendations<br />revealing the very contrary opinions of economists on the subject.<br />From this alarming evolution, the question of sustainability of such a large<br />indebtedness arises.<br />Are the U.S. already bankrupt?<br />If not, what is the ultimate level of its foreign debt?<br />As a starting point, the variety of meanings of the term `sustainability'<br />are consolidated to a consistent definition.<br />Introducing terminology and reviewing the basic principles of balance<br />of payments accounting, the evolution of the U.S. balance of payments<br />and international debt is presented in numbers. The models of the central parts of the text<br />emphasise the importance of understanding the current account as an<br />intertemporal phenomenon.<br />The `real' perspective is presented in the baseline representative agent<br />and overlapping generations macro-models whereas the monetary perspective<br />is exposed in a portfolio balance approach.<br />These models are confronted with IMF statistics and checked for<br />plausibility of their implications.<br />As the very crucial point for the U.S. case, the<br />significance of the dollar standard of international financial markets<br />is discussed<br />thereafter.<br />Finally, a detailed breakdown of the income account reveals surprising<br />insights on the quality of U.S. agents' investment decisions.<br /><br />The overall result is striking: Although the debt-to-GDP ratio is<br />approaching its 5 per cent red-mark, there are no effects observable<br />in fundamental variables indicating bankruptcy or un-sustainability of<br />the U.S. international debt.<br />On the contrary - for monetary reasons, the U.S. will be able to run<br />a significant higher level of external debt and models in conjunction<br />with data suggest that the U.S. is approaching a long-run<br />debt-to-GDP steady state. In these results, the author acknowledges the<br />outsider position of economists.</dcterms:abstract>
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