Sofiev, M., Berger, U., Prank, M., Vira, J., Arteta, J., Belmonte, J., Bergmann, K. -C., Cheroux, F., Elbern, H., Friese, E., Galan, C., Gehrig, R., Khvorostyanov, D., Kranenburg, R., Kumar, U., Marecal, V., Meleux, F., Menut, L., Pessi, A. -M., Robertson, L., Ritenberga, O., Rodinkova, V., Saarto, A., Segers, A., Severova, E., Sauliene, I., Siljamo, P., Steensen, B. M., Teinemaa, E., Thibaudon, M. and Peuch, V. -H. (2015). MACC regional multi-model ensemble simulations of birch pollen dispersion in Europe. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15 (14). S. 8115 - 8131. GOTTINGEN: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. ISSN 1680-7324

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Abstract

This paper presents the first ensemble modelling experiment in relation to birch pollen in Europe. The seven-model European ensemble of MACC-ENS, tested in trial simulations over the flowering season of 2010, was run through the flowering season of 2013. The simulations have been compared with observations in 11 countries, all members of the European Aeroallergen Network, for both individual models and the ensemble mean and median. It is shown that the models successfully reproduced the timing of the very late season of 2013, generally within a couple of days from the observed start of the season. The end of the season was generally predicted later than observed, by 5 days or more, which is a known feature of the source term used in the study. Absolute pollen concentrations during the season were somewhat underestimated in the southern part of the birch habitat. In the northern part of Europe, a record-low pollen season was strongly overestimated by all models. The median of the multi-model ensemble demonstrated robust performance, successfully eliminating the impact of outliers, which was particularly useful since for most models this was the first experience of pollen forecasting.

Item Type: Journal Article
Creators:
CreatorsEmailORCIDORCID Put Code
Sofiev, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Berger, U.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Prank, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Vira, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Arteta, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Belmonte, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bergmann, K. -C.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Cheroux, F.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Elbern, H.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Friese, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Galan, C.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Gehrig, R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Khvorostyanov, D.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kranenburg, R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kumar, U.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Marecal, V.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Meleux, F.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Menut, L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Pessi, A. -M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Robertson, L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ritenberga, O.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rodinkova, V.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Saarto, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Segers, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Severova, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Sauliene, I.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Siljamo, P.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Steensen, B. M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Teinemaa, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Thibaudon, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Peuch, V. -H.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
URN: urn:nbn:de:hbz:38-418388
DOI: 10.5194/acp-15-8115-2015
Journal or Publication Title: Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Volume: 15
Number: 14
Page Range: S. 8115 - 8131
Date: 2015
Publisher: COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
Place of Publication: GOTTINGEN
ISSN: 1680-7324
Language: English
Faculty: Unspecified
Divisions: Unspecified
Subjects: no entry
Uncontrolled Keywords:
KeywordsLanguage
LONG-RANGE TRANSPORT; DRY DEPOSITION SCHEME; BETULA POLLEN; AIRBORNE POLLEN; AMBROSIA POLLEN; MODEL; EMISSION; TERM; PARAMETERIZATION; VALIDATIONMultiple languages
Environmental Sciences; Meteorology & Atmospheric SciencesMultiple languages
URI: http://kups.ub.uni-koeln.de/id/eprint/41838

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